Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, developed jointly by AXSMarine (Signal Group) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), offers a range of indicators for shipments of key commodities - crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer-related products including sulphur and ammonia, and agricultural products - through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime channels.
Leveraging AXSMarine (Signal Group)’s comprehensive vessel-tracking and cross-commodity cargo intelligence, this dashboard is updated daily, offering near-real-time insights into the volume and pattern of trade in products transiting or affected by developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Leveraging AXSMarine (Signal Group)’s comprehensive vessel-tracking and cross-commodity cargo intelligence, this dashboard is updated daily, offering near-real-time insights into the volume and pattern of trade in products transiting or affected by developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Note: Agricultural products inbound shipments are measured by discharge date. This means that cargoes shown after 28 February often reflect vessels that had already passed through the Strait and arrived before the closure, but were discharged only afterwards. For that reason, the series does not immediately drop to zero after 28 February.
Strategic trade insights: Cross-commodity impact
Since the signing of the MoU to end the war on 17 June, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shown only limited and uneven signs of restarting. The data point to a gradual return of flows rather than a broad normalization of traffic.
Outbound crude shipments to destinations outside the Persian Gulf remain significantly below previous levels. Since the MoU was signed, crude oil flows have been limited to only a few isolated shipments. The seven-day moving average remains close to zero and well below both the 2025 baseline and the prior-year trend, suggesting that crude oil trade has not yet regained meaningful momentum.
Outbound LNG shipments have shown no meaningful progress since the MoU. There has been no visible AIS (automatic identification system)-traceable LNG shipments through the Strait to destinations outside the Persian Gulf since the MoU was signed, and the seven-day moving average has remained near zero. This suggests that LNG operators have not yet resumed regular outbound transit through the Strait.
Fertilizer-related outbound shipments have also shown no visible restart since the MoU. AIS-traceable flows have remained absent or effectively at zero, with the seven-day moving average remaining flat - near zero - and no clear late-June rebound. This indicates that fertilizer-related operators are still holding back from resuming regular shipments through the Strait.
Inbound agricultural shipments into the Persian Gulf show more signs of recovery, but the improvement remains fragile. Since the MoU, activity has picked up modestly in late June, lifting the seven-day moving average up from very low levels. However, the rebound remains partial, with current volumes still below the 2025 average and generally below the prior-year trend.
In summary, the data suggest that the MoU has not yet led to a broad recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil flows have only restarted in a limited way, LNG and fertilizer-related shipments remain effectively absent, and agricultural inbound shipments show only a tentative and incomplete recovery.