Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, developed jointly by AXSMarine (Signal Group) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), offers a range of indicators for shipments of key commodities - crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer-related products including sulphur and ammonia, and agricultural products - through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime channels.
Leveraging AXSMarine (Signal Group)’s comprehensive vessel-tracking and cross-commodity cargo intelligence, this dashboard is updated daily, offering near-real-time insights into the volume and pattern of trade in products transiting or affected by developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Leveraging AXSMarine (Signal Group)’s comprehensive vessel-tracking and cross-commodity cargo intelligence, this dashboard is updated daily, offering near-real-time insights into the volume and pattern of trade in products transiting or affected by developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Agricultural imports to the Persian Gulf initially held up as pre-closure cargoes continued discharging, but fell sharply in April — down 68% in shipments and 50% in volume — as that pipeline runs dry. Any further recovery across all commodities now depends entirely on new transits through the Strait.
Strategic Trade Insight: Cross-Commodity Impact
Two months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026, this update reviews how trade has evolved across the four indicators tracked. Outbound flows of Crude Oil, LNG and Fertilizer-related cargoes remain extremely low or near-zero. Inbound Agricultural shipments to the Persian Gulf ports, which initially held up due to in-transit cargo before the conflict, fell sharply in April without additional transits through the Strait.
Crude Oil
Outbound crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed at the start of March 2026.
The decline visible in late February reflects the methodology behind the indicator: cargoes loaded in the final days of February but unable to transit, and remaining in the Persian Gulf, were recorded against their loading date. As a result, the index began to fall slightly before the conflict broke out.
Only a small number of vessels carrying crude oil safely sailed through the Strait with AIS turned on. Even during the brief window of 17–18 April, when Iran announced that the Strait was open to commercial traffic, there was no measurable recovery in this indicator of vessels sailing through with AIS turned on.
In addition to AIS signals being turned off, traffic and flow analysis is also affected by signal spoofing. Information on additional vessels sailing through the Strait without AIS turned on can be obtained from AXSMarine.
| Hormuz Traffic reduction of vessels laden with Crude Oil (including AIS off) | 95% |
| % of volume of Crude Oil sailing through Hormuz (Pre-Conflict) compared to global volume | 30% – 33% |
LNG
LNG shipments through the Strait have been at a near-complete halt since 28 February 2026. Unlike crude oil, which has shown occasional trace movements, this indicator more accurately reflects actual activity and has recorded zero AIS-traceable passages throughout the entire period from 1 March through late April, including during both the 8–12 April ceasefire window and the brief reopening of 17–18 April.
The late-February decline prior to the start of the conflict reflects loaded cargoes that were unable to transit through the Strait before the conflict began. Available vessel-tracking information suggests that only a very small number of LNG vessels sailed through the Strait without AIS turned on.
Around 20% of the global seaborne LNG market passes through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf, implying a significant disruption to global trade.
The LNG indicator covers liquefied natural gas (LNG) only and does not include other gas carrier traffic. Separate crossing records indicate that a number of (two) LPG carriers have continued to transit the Strait in limited numbers during the disruption; those movements are not captured here.
| Hormuz Traffic reduction of vessels laden with LNG (including AIS off) | 99% |
| % of volume of LNG sailing through Hormuz (Pre-Conflict) compared to global volume | 20% |
Fertilizer-Related Cargoes
Fertilizer-related cargoes through the Strait fell to near zero at the beginning of March. Only a few vessels sailed through the Strait during March with AIS turned on. As with the other indicators, the drop visible in late February reflects cargoes loaded before the conflict that were unable to transit the Strait before it began. Only one AIS-tracked movement was recorded in April.
The fertilizer basket includes nitrogen fertilizers (urea and ammonia), phosphate fertilizers (MAP and DAP), and sulphur. The Persian Gulf accounts for around 50% of global seaborne sulphur liftings, 25% of global seaborne urea, 18% of global seaborne ammonia, and 13% of global seaborne phosphate (DAP and MAP). Pre-conflict traffic averaged around 60 shipments per month, with a total monthly volume of 2.7 to 3.1 million tons.
| Hormuz Traffic reduction of vessels laden with Fertilizer-related cargoes (including AIS off) | 87% |
| % of volume of Fertilizer-related cargoes sailing through Hormuz (Pre-Conflict) compared to global volume | 30% |
Agricultural Products
Agricultural shipments to Persian Gulf destinations have followed a very different pattern from the other commodities tracked. Rather than collapsing immediately, volumes declined gradually through March and April. This indicator focuses on discharge dates at destination ports rather than Strait transit dates in order to reflect the actual impact on imports and exports. Cargoes that had already sailed through the Strait before the end of February and were already in the Persian Gulf continued discharging throughout March.
In April, however, volumes fell sharply as the pipeline of pre-closure shipments ran down. This marks a shift in the nature of the disruption, from slowing trade to something much closer to an effective stop. Any recovery from this point would require new transits through the Strait. Agricultural trade here refers to grain, oilseed, pulse, and sugar-related shipments to Persian Gulf countries.
| Decrease in number of shipments discharged in April 2026 | 68% |
| Decrease in volume discharged in April 2026 | 50% |
A Note on Data Coverage
All four indicators are derived from AIS-transmitting vessels and therefore carry the limitations of AIS-based monitoring. Vessels operating without AIS, including some associated with sanctions-evasion activity, are not visible to automated tracking systems and are not captured in these indicators. Actual volumes may therefore differ from those shown here. For information on movements not traceable through AIS, please contact AXSMarine.